A watchpost for geopolitical exposure. Not where risk originates — who bears it. The Intensity index weights country GPR by trade, energy, raw-material and chokepoint dependency. The sliders are your channel mix. What does this measure? How the index is built
Exposure: every economy shaded by the risk it bears. Switch to Risk sources and the map inverts - it shades every economy by how much of the selected country's Intensity that economy produces.
Each source country indexed to its own 1985–2023 mean = 100. Detects deterioration; understates chronically high-risk states.
Weights renormalise to sum to 1. There is no correct fixed weighting — move them and read the result as a sensitivity analysis, not a ranking. The default (55 / 25 / 10 / 10) is an illustrative starting point, not a derived weighting.
Gross: bilateral goods flows (Comtrade). Value added: origin of the value added embodied in this economy's final demand (OECD TiVA FDVA). It looks through third countries, but it measures what this economy's consumers and investors ultimately absorb, finished goods included — not what its producers use as inputs (METHODOLOGY §5.2).
As observed: each channel is its covered share × the mean partner GPR over the partners GPR observes, so a thinly covered economy ranks low for a coverage reason, not an exposure one. Per observed dependency divides each channel by its covered share (chokepoint has no coverage measure and is unchanged); this removes the confound but amplifies noise where coverage is thin — energy coverage falls to 0.09 (METHODOLOGY §5.4).
The risk-sources file breaks the selected economy's Intensity down by source country for the month on screen, in whichever format is selected above, and states the chokepoint share it cannot attribute. Each file carries the view state that produced it, a coverage qualifier per channel, and the CC-BY citation. Chokepoint coverage is blank by construction — the file header says why. GeoJSON covers the cross-section only; the PNG carries the legend and its break values in a footer.
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Boundaries: Natural Earth (public domain). GPR: Caldara & Iacoviello (2022), CC-BY.
Select a country to see its exposure decomposition and largest risk-weighted dependencies.